How High Can This Real Estate Market Go?

By Rebecca Wissink

From coast to coast, real estate records were smashed across the nation in 2021. Some markets saw insane price increases of 25-30%. For example, the Greater Montreal area gained 27.45%, Ottawa gained 23.3%, and Vancouver gained 18.62% (year-over-year benchmark prices from 2020 to 2021). Calgary and the surrounding communities of Airdrie and Cochrane did not see these astronomical surges. So, how did Calgary's real estate market fare in 2021? Calgary was late to the party, but in late 2021 when most markets settled down a bit, Calgary was just catching fire.  

Calgary’s market broke records of its own last year, and the area rings in 2022 with some of the tightest conditions observed in over a decade. The number of homes sold, almost 28,000 transactions, was a whopping increase of over 70% from the year prior. Single family home prices in Calgary hit a bottom of $440,000 in April 2020. By January 2022, the total residential price had climbed and detached home prices had risen almost 14% year-over-year. In the month of January 2022 alone home prices in Calgary grew by another 2%. As of February 1, 2022, Calgary has hit its lowest point of inventory since 2006. The number of days a property sat on the market before selling has not only dropped significantly from 2020 to 2021, but has again dropped in early 2022. Calgary has less than 6 weeks of inventory available. In fact, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC) reports “The market came flying out of the gate in January, with activity reaching an all-time high for the month.” RBC further comments that although demand is strongest for single-family homes, condo transactions have now seen the biggest increase, up a staggering 94% year-over-year. All of these statistics tell us the market is hot here too.

The neighbouring communities of Cochrane and Airdrie are two of the fastest growing in the country, and their home activity reflects such as both cities broke records in November and December of 2021. In January 2022, Airdrie and Cochrane both had less than one month of inventory available. Cochrane had the lowest inventory level for any January ever recorded, whereas Airdrie had the lowest inventory level in December 2021 since 2005. Airdrie is the tightest market in the area in terms of supply and the number of days a home is on the market. Further, Airdrie saw an almost 3% increase in the total benchmark price in January 2022 alone, while Cochrane set a new record in December 2021 for its benchmark home price. Airdrie also set a new record high for the number of sales for all property types in 2021. Airdrie became a seller’s market in the middle of 2021, with single-detached homes seeing the greatest price gains. In contrast, in Cochrane, every type of property is gaining value. The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) suspects that given hybrid and remote working options, Airdrie in particular has benefited from consumers favouring the cities lower detached home prices when compared to Calgary.

Table 1. Calgary and Area Real Estate by the Numbers (Sources: various) *Please see notes at the end of this article

As for what might transpire in 2022 in the real estate market, CREB’s® Chief Economist expects the current conditions to “persist for several more months.” This is largely due to the threat of rising interest rates is creating a sense of urgency in the marketplace. Which is understandable. A mortgage of $350,000 will cost an extra $268 per month if the interest rates rises the expected 1.5%. Long-term though, that extra 1.5% interest will cost the buyer an additional $64,371 in payments over twenty years on a fixed rate mortgage (assuming a 3% interest rate in February 2022). That’s an incentive to buy now if you can. RBC reports “we expect even steeper increases [in prices] in the near term. The stronger prospects for the provincial economy - led by a rebounding energy sector - has significantly boosted confidence in the housing market over the past year.” For those with a fear-of-missing-out, the Calgary market is forecast to grow just under five percent (4.46%) in price in 2022, shown in Figure 1 below. However, demand is expected to remain strong for this area. When extra buyers come into a market with limited inventory, prices swell. It’s basic supply and demand. If you’re ready to lock down a purchase before the prices rise any further, speak to an experienced Ross Pavl ELITE Real Estate Group Realtor® today.

Figure 1. Calgary Sales and Price Growth Forecast for 2022 (Source: CREB)

Notes from Table 1:

• I have used the average total price of a home in January 2022 from CREA
• **Canada’s average price is not seasonally adjusted
• **Canada’s average price is heavily skewed by Vancouver and Toronto. “Excluding these two markets from the calculation in January 2022 cuts almost $160,000 from the national average price.” From CREA
• The average days on market is for month of January 2022 from CREA
• The months of supply is as of February 1, 2022 from CREA

Various sources use different prices, which could be the benchmark price, the average price, or the median price. Depending on which price is used, Calgary’s year-over-year increases range between 8.25% to 16.26%. This is also partly due to different property types. In 2021, apartments only gained 2.47% in price, whereas a detached home gained 9.72% in price. Furthermore, there are geographical differences in price around the city. The total residential benchmark price gained a high of over 13% in the north, north-west, south, and south-east, whereas the city centre only gained 5.8% year-over-year. However, the west and the city core have the highest detached home benchmark prices, whereas the east has the lowest.

Image via creative commons courtesy of Angel Lite Photography

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