April Calgary Real Estate Sales Decline & New Listings Increase
by Ross PAVL
on Wednesday, May 4th, 2016 at 1:55pm.
Calgary Home Prices Down 3.4%, Higher Inventory Levels and Less Sales
The Calgary Real Estate Board’s (CREB®) April 2016 Calgary Regional Housing Market Statistics for the City of Calgary confirmed that the Benchmark Price for Total Residential (detached, attached & apartment homes) dropped 3.4% to $441,000 from $456,700 in April 2015 and from $442,800 in March 2016. The most recent high Benchmark Prices of $459,300 in August and September 2015, as well as $462,400 in January 2015, indicate a slow decline in 2016 market prices with no major market correction taking place.
CREB® reported that slower sales, combined with rising inventories in the apartment and attached housing categories, ensured that market conditions continue to favour buyers in these segments. The overall median price for the City of Calgary actually increased over the past year and now sits at $430,000 - up from $418,000 in April 2015. Job losses over the past year have put pressure on the Calgary real estate market, yet Calgary home prices continue to remain resilient to a major correction experienced with previous downturns in the Alberta energy sector.
City of Calgary Overall Real Estate Market Stats for April 2016:
New Listings were up 4.96% - to 3,216 from 3,064 in April 2015.
Sales were down 10.4% - 1,764 units compared to 1,963 in April 2015.
Days on the market increased to 46 compared to 40 in April 2015.
Inventory levels rose to 6,242 units (covering all 3 housing types: detached, attached & apartment homes), up from 5,637 in April 2015. This is nearing the record high level of over 6,900 units in February 2008.
Overall supply levels increased to 3.54 months of inventory (compared to 2.87 in April 2015) - this is up substantially and considered to be an imbalanced market, clearly in favour of the buyer.
The most critical statistic for the month was the number of New Listings and Total Inventory which is typically the highest in the spring months of April, May and June. New listings peaked in May and June of 2015 and have climbed to over 3,200 new listings in March and April 2016. Sellers that sat on the sidelines and decided not to list their home in 2015 because of poor market conditions have now come back into the spring 2016 market. As a result, total inventory levels are now at 6,242 unit - peak levels not seen since 2011.
CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie commented on this by saying: “While the weak economic climate is influencing demand, the apartment and attached sectors are further impacted by increased supply in the competing new home sector and rental markets.” She also added the following, “This is one of the contributing factors to the steeper price declines recorded in the apartment sector.”
The chart below highlights all of the Calgary real estate market activity for 2016 to-date (total residential = detached, attached and apartment housing types) and allows a month-to-month comparison as well as a year-over-year comparison with 2015.
City of Calgary 2016 Total Residential Summary Chart
CREB® president Cliff Stevenson commented on this month's statistics by saying:
"For sellers, the reality of seven consecutive months of price declines has started to sink in. From re-considering the listing of their home to lowering expectations on price, sellers are beginning to adjust to the current market reality.”
Benchmark Price is used as the best indicator of price changes and trends since it tracks similar properties over time. Median Price is also a better indicator than Average Price as it follows the Benchmark Price more closely. To put historical Calgary house prices in perspective, compare the three price types over the past 5 years for Total Residential in the chart below.
The City of Calgary detached home category accounted for the most sales of all 3 housing types and had the lowest decline in April 2016 at -1.39% as indicated in the chart below. It also had the lowest decline in sales for 2015 Year-To-Date at -5.88%. Compare this to the attached home and apartment categories that had the most sales decrease for April 2016 - both down over 22% from April 2015.
The Benchmark Price for all 3 housing types remained relatively stable for most of 2015 when compared to Year-To-Date figures from 2014, and indicating that a market crash similar to 2008 was not happening. 2016 YTD prices in all 3 categories are off 5% or less with the detached and attached home home categories being least impacted.
Here's the breakdown of how the different segments in the Calgary real estate market performed year-to-date for April 2016. Please focus on the market segment that applies to you to see what really transpired in April.
Breakdown of Calgary Detached, Attached & Apartment Statistics
Focusing on Detached Home Sales, the chart below highlights all the price categories where Calgary real estate sales are taking place. The bulk of sales occurred in the affordability range (outlined in red), between $350,000 to $600,000, representing 70% of all sales so far in 2016. Based on the year-to-date totals, every price category showed less sales in 2016 compared to last year. The Median Price for detached homes in Calgary for April 2016 was $482,750 - right in the middle of where 70% of of YTD 2016 sales have taken place.
Notice how the trend for Calgary Luxury Homes ($1,000,000 and over price categories) sold Year-To-Date 2016 are up slightly in almost every price category except for those over $2,500,000. Could this signal a shift to a recovering market in this category?
Calgary Total Detached Home Sales by Price Category
These overall Calgary real estate statistics reveal the state of the Calgary real estate market so far this year. If you have questions about the market in your community or about your type of residential home (detached, attached or apartment), we'd be happy to answer any questions you may have.