Doug Porter actually sounded a little surprised at how the housing
industry — and consumers — have shrugged off the economic downturn.
OK, maybe shrugged off might be stretching it a bit, but the downtime
that infiltrated the housing industry wasn’t as brutal as many thought.
“Buyers really looked across the valley of the recession,” he told an
early morning audience at a recent real estate and economic seminar in
Calgary.
Demand was off dramatically during 2008 after consumers decided the
time wasn’t right to make any moves because of economic uncertainty
that included job losses.
“If you’re not sure about your job future, you’re not going to go out
and buy a house,” is the way Cal Wenzel, founder of Shane Homes, put it
to me recently.
But ever since about March of this year, confidence in the marketplace started to rebound.
Consumers loosened the grip on their wallets — thanks to historically
low mortgage rates and reduced house prices — and have reentered the
home ownership market.
“They saw a combination of a little bit of a dip in prices and very low
rates as a good long-term opportunity,” said Porter, who was part of a
panel discussion on the local real estate market.
Calgarians being Calgarians — people who somehow manage to see a bright
side to almost every situation — they looked at the downturn as an
opportunity.
“At the end of the day, buyers just viewed this as basically a
once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to get into ownership — and I think
that’s why the market turned, and turned so aggressively,” said Porter.
And how it has turned. In September, single detached homebuilders in
Calgary started work on 616 homes, twice the number from the same month
in 2008, says Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.
On the strength of that number, builders were rapidly closing the
percentage gap between January to September | and the same period last
year, which now sits at just nine per cent.
Back in April, the gap was at its widest at 44 per cent, but has been narrowing ever since.
On the resale side, things have flattened out in the past couple of
months at between 1, 200 and 1,300 sales, but that’s still more than
double the activity in January.
So far this year, July was the busiest month with slightly more than 1,800 homes changing hands.
“The correction in the Calgary housing market appears to be
stabilizing,” says Diane Scott, president-elect of the Calgary Real
Estate Board.
The only downside to Calgary housing is the lack of multifamily construction.
Builders and developers are busy paring down their standing inventory before deciding to take on new projects.
“I’m going to let the market decide when I’ll build something else,” was the comment of one builder with whom I spoke.
That being said, six smaller projects have received building permit
approval from the city to get going. When that will happen, though, is
another matter.
Looking at housing from a macro perspective,
Porter said he and other economists were surprised how quickly the
housing market began to turn around considering the overall weakness of
Alberta’s economy.
In an interview with the Herald, Porter said
“Alberta’s actually seen the biggest rise in its jobless rate of any
province in the country from its lows over the past year, but be that
as it may, that affects less than 10 per cent of the population.
“The rest of the population that still has a job just saw this as a tremendous opportunity — and seized that opportunity.”
A socio-economic report from the City of Calgary says the city’s
economy is turning for the better, but “the course will be slow and
steady — contracting 2.5 per cent this year before regaining most of
that lost ground in 2010.”


Residential construction projects are “rising again after significant
weakness in the past year, which is a positive sign,” says city
economist Patrick Walters. “Calgary’s local economy will continue to
strengthen as global economies begin to recover.”